I was playing a pretty entertaining yet simple dice game called Perudo where you make bets against the number of same dice value that may be on the whole table where you can only see the dice you have and guess against the others.

The rules are simple. You do a roll, covered, so only you can see what you have. Values 2 through 6 count as their face value, and ones count as any value including one. Bets can only go up in either face value or dice count until eventually someone calls it and checks if there are indeed at least the number of dice that were claimed. There are some special rules regarding bets towards ones but these are not relevant for what comes next.

So after winning some and losing a bunch, I decided to calculate the odds for each bet succeeding, provided with the dice I have and the number of remaining dice on the table. The result is a simple web program to simulate them:

Excel goes brr~

The statistical distribution of the game is essentially the cumulative binomial distribution where you want to know your odds of getting at least a number of dice with the same value.